Gene Therapy ROI Calculator
Investor Edition: Probability-weighted pipeline valuation for gene editing companies. Select a company to analyze risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) based on phase success rates, market size, pricing assumptions, and time to market.
CRISPR Therapeutics
CRSP · Market Cap: $3.5B · Cash: $1.8B
Total Pipeline rNPV
$16.9B
Risk-adjusted, base case
Current Market Cap
$3.5B
Approximate
rNPV / Market Cap
4.82x
Potentially undervalued
Risk-Adjusted NPV by Program
Pipeline Detail & Adjustments
Adjust market penetration and price per patient to model different assumptions.
| Program | Phase | Patients | Penetration | Price/Patient | P(Success) | Years | rNPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Casgevy (SCD) Sickle Cell Disease | Approved | 100,000 | 5.0% | $2.2M | 100.0% | Now | $11.0B |
Casgevy (TDT) Transfusion-Dependent Thalassemia | Approved | 30,000 | 8.0% | $2.2M | 100.0% | Now | $5.3B |
CTX110 (CAR-T) Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma | Phase 1/2 | 70,000 | 10.0% | $400K | 15.0% | 3yr | $315.6M |
CTX460 (AATD) Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency | Preclinical | 100,000 | 5.0% | $2.0M | 5.0% | 6yr | $282.2M |
| Total Pipeline rNPV | $16.9B | ||||||
Industry Phase Success Rates (BioMedTracker/Citeline)
Preclinical
5%
to approval
Phase 1
10%
to approval
Phase 1/2
15%
to approval
Phase 2
25%
to approval
Phase 2/3
45%
to approval
Phase 3
60%
to approval
Approved
100%
to approval
Methodology
Expected Revenue (per program)
Target Patients x Penetration x Price/Patient
Risk-Adjusted Revenue
Expected Revenue x P(Success for Phase)
Program rNPV
Risk-Adjusted Revenue / (1 + Discount Rate)^Years
Total Pipeline rNPV
Sum of all Program rNPVs
This is an educational tool for understanding biotech pipeline valuation concepts. It is NOT investment advice. Real valuations involve far more factors including competition, IP, management, manufacturing, and market dynamics. Past phase success rates do not guarantee future outcomes. Market caps and cash positions are approximate and may not reflect current values. Phase success rates are derived from BioMedTracker/Citeline industry data.